Leading in Uncertain Times: When There’s No Manual

Leading in Uncertain Times: When There’s No Manual

A few years ago, following the social unrest in Chile and in the midst of the pandemic, we at Almabrands began discussing something we called, at the time, “Everything Changes, Everything Changes”—not as a slogan, but as a hypothesis: what we were experiencing was not a one-off crisis, nor a string of isolated events (social, political, health, and economic crises), but rather the beginning of a different way of inhabiting the world.

A period marked by instability and uncertainty.

Time has gradually confirmed that intuition. It wasn’t one crisis after another. It was—and is—a permanent state of change, where certainties are few and far between and conclusions are unlikely.

Today, the rise in oil prices is just one more example. It’s not the problem in and of itself, but rather a sign of an environment where there is no stability—where we don’t know how long it will last, where it’s headed, or what comes next. And as we try to make sense of that—and the war, and other wars—we’re experiencing a new layer: artificial intelligence, which not only transforms industries but also puts pressure on something deeper—our human capacity and need to envision the future.

And it’s not just that things are changing that overwhelms us, but also the speed at which they do. A pace that, at times, feels inhuman. We haven’t even had time to grasp one change before we’re already facing the next one. There’s no time to process, to come to terms with, or to make sense of what’s happening. Anxiety, confusion, fear, hesitation, inaction, and resistance to change set in.

In this context, leadership becomes critical. But not just any kind of leadership. For a long time, we associated leadership with having answers, with projecting certainty, with knowing where to go, and with delegating and supervising. Today, that expectation is becoming fragile, because often there simply aren’t any clear answers.

Leadership today requires additional, new, and different skills: the ability to adapt, contain, and sustain. It involves experimenting rather than defining, questioning rather than assuming, maintaining openness without losing direction, and actively participating in processes rather than delegating entirely.

It’s about leading in an environment where certainty is lacking, and where a leader’s value lies in how they navigate ambiguity rather than in how much they know in advance.